A Tax Foundation analysis released earlier this month says Maine could see a revenue boon if voters agree to legalize marijuana.

It took a court fight with Maine’s secretary of state, but the legalization question will be on the ballot in 2016. It would allow people to possess 2.5 ounces of marijuana and give the state power to regulate cultivation facilities and retail stores, placing a 10 percent sales tax on marijuana products.

The Tax Foundation didn’t exactly analyze that proposal. Instead, it used demand in Colorado and Washington to project the revenue states could gain if they placed taxes on new marijuana sales between 15 percent and 25 percent.

It found that Maine could haul in $22 million per year at the low mark and $37 million at the high mark. If you do the math, that’s a projected $148 million in annual sales for nearly $15 million in tax revenue at a 10 percent rate. This is back-of-the-envelope math, but it’s as close as we’ve gotten to a likely estimate on tax revenue so far.

The Legislature’s budget-writing committee estimated $8.8 million in revenue in the first full year, but that would certainly grow and the Legislature could increase tax rates going forward. However, it’s only part of a much more complicated debate.