The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Texas Rangers are set to clash in the World Series, and what makes this Fall Classic most intriguing is the unlikely journey these teams took to get here. Despite impressive early-season performances, Arizona and Texas hardly looked like World Series contenders as the season drew to a close, with the Diamondbacks not clinching their wild-card spot until the second-to-last day of the season and the Rangers losing three of their last four games to fall out of the AL West lead.

However, both clubs proved deserving in back-and-forth league championship series, with Texas edging out Houston in a thrilling seven-game ALCS and Arizona staging a remarkable comeback against the Philadelphia Phillies for a seven-game NLCS win, which should have triggered early retirement plans for Chris “Mad Dog” Russo.

So as the Diamondbacks and Rangers face off in the World Series, these surprising teams are ready to prove they’re no fluke. Let’s look at the numbers inside the World Series matchup.

STARTING PITCHING

Both teams feature two strong starting pitchers at the front of the rotation: Right-handed Nathan Eovaldi and left-hander Jordan Montgomery for the Rangers and righties Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly for the Diamondbacks. Both teams also have a third starter who has displayed a mixture of brilliance and inconsistency this season, although Texas trade deadline acquisition Max Scherzer’s experience contrasts sharply with Arizona rookie Brandon Pfaadt, despite the latter’s postseason success. (Pfaadt has given up just two runs over his last 14 innings.)

The Rangers’ World Series hopes might rest on the right arm of Eovaldi, who’s been dynamic in the postseason with a 2.42 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 26 innings. His success hinges on his command of the strike zone, working the inside and outside edges with precision. The veteran right-hander employs a strategy of horizontal rather than vertical movement, focusing on the location of his four-seamer, splitter and cutter. Eovaldi consistently pounds the outside edge with his fastball, occasionally using the inside for strikeouts. His splitter finds its spot on the left edge of the plate from the hitter’s perspective while his cutter resides on the right edge. Eovaldi’s fastball doesn’t rise but instead boasts significant arm-side movement, making it a potent weapon.

Gallen’s pitch repertoire, which includes a fastball, cutter, change-up and curveball, is also effective. His curveball has a whiff rate of 40 percent (the league average is 34 percent) while his change-up induces a swing and miss 31 percent of the time, slightly above average. Kelly often gets the benefit of the doubt when it comes to the strike zone, especially down and in against right-handed batters. Overall, he’s gotten eight strikes more than expected called to right-handed batters in the regular season and playoffs, the most by any pitcher in this World Series.

Overall, the starting pitching rotations appear closely matched, but the Rangers get the nod after allowing a weighted on-base average against of .314 during the regular season and playoffs (eighth best), while the Diamondbacks have allowed a .332 wOBA against (21st).

Advantage: Texas Rangers

LINEUPS

The Rangers’ lineup features the seasoned professionalism of middle infielders Marcus Semien and Corey Seager complemented by Adolis García’s relentless aggression and the youthful talents of rookies Josh Jung and Evan Carter. Other hitters, like Mitch Garver, Jonah Heim and Nathaniel Lowe, continue to elevate their stock, combining to form a lineup that offers no easy outs.

García, 30, has been unstoppable this postseason. The Rangers’ cleanup hitter is batting .327 with seven home runs and 20 RBI in 12 games. Fifteen of those RBI came in the American League Championship Series, a record for any postseason series. He achieved a remarkable feat in a series-deciding game, becoming the second player in MLB history to record four hits and two home runs in such a crucial matchup, joining Carlos Beltran from the 2004 National League Division Series. Additionally, Garcia made history by being the first player to drive in runs in six consecutive games during a postseason series.

Arizona’s lineup features consistent hitters like second baseman Ketel Marte, rising stars like catcher Gabriel Moreno and seasoned veterans who grind at-bats. Marte went 12 for 31 (.387) with four doubles, a triple, three RBI and a stolen base in the NLCS, earning series MVP honors. His percentage of hits on the sweet spot of the bat, also known as barrels, in the playoffs is 27 percent, compared to 17 percent during the regular season. He had a similar jump during the 2017 playoffs, so perhaps this isn’t a fluke.

“He’s got lightning-fast hands,” Phillies starter Aaron Nola said after losing Game 7. “You’ve really got to make your pitch against him. You’ve got to change speeds on him. He’s swinging the bat really well right now.”

Then there is rookie sensation Corbin Carroll, the likely unanimous choice for National League Rookie of the Year. The 23-year-old outfielder showcased his power by hitting 25 home runs and exhibited remarkable speed as he led the National League with 10 triples and finished second with 54 stolen bases. His overall contribution to the team ranked ninth among all position players in FanGraphs’ wins above replacement (6.0 fWAR). He also provided some fireworks in Game 7 against the Phillies, recording three hits, two runs, two stolen bases and two RBI in the winner-take-all matchup, a 4-2 Diamondbacks victory.

Speaking of stolen bases, these two teams are at different ends of the spectrum. Arizona loves to take advantage of opportunities to run, having attempted a steal eight percent of the time a base was open, third-most in the majors, including the playoffs. Texas has attempted to steal just four percent of the time, the second-lowest rate.

Creating runs is, of course, the most important offensive stat, and Texas created runs at a rate 14 percent better than an average team after adjusting for league and park effects during the regular season. The Rangers improved on that during the playoffs, when they have been 24 percent better than an average team. Arizona, meanwhile, has produced like an average team in both segments of the 2023 campaign.

Advantage: Texas Rangers

BULLPENS

The Diamondbacks’ bullpen underwent a remarkable summer transformation, coinciding with the acquisition of closer Paul Sewald from the Seattle Mariners at the trade deadline. Before the deal, Arizona’s bullpen had a combined earned run average of 4.43, 24th in the majors. Following the trade, the combined ERA dropped to 3.81. In the playoffs it has dropped even further to 2.76, almost a half-run below the average relief ERA of 3.17 in this postseason.

It’s amazing how that one trade unlocked the full potential of Arizona’s bullpen. Right-handers Ryan Thompson and Kevin Ginkel are thriving as the bridge to Sewald in the ninth and Andrew Saalfrank, the left-handed specialist, has been terrific against left-handed hitters in the postseason.

Texas, on the other hand, leans on raw power with right-handers José Leclerc and Josh Sborz and lefty Aroldis Chapman. Each of those three has a fastball that averages 95.5 mph or more, with Chapman coming close to triple digits (99.4 mph).

The speed comes at the expense of some control. The Rangers had a league-low 48 percent conversion rate on save opportunities during the regular season (30 for 63) but appear to have righted the ship in the playoffs (3 for 4). Sborz didn’t allow a postseason run until Monday night; he’s given up two hits and one earned run in 8 2/3 postseason innings. Chapman has allowed only one run in 6 1/3 postseason innings (seven appearances). Leclerc has retired 7 of 11 batters during high-leverage innings during this playoff run.

“Despite any earlier criticism or pitfalls, we never lost confidence in them,” Texas pitching coach Mike Maddux said. “And they are bringing it. Bringing it big time.”

Still, Arizona’s relievers are slightly better at stranding runners (72 percent vs 70 percent) and allow a lower weighted on-base average in high-leverage situations (.322 vs .337), giving them the narrow edge.

Advantage: Arizona Diamondbacks