BOSTON (AP) — The worst is not over for the New England economy, with job losses expected to mount until unemployment bottoms out in the middle of next year, according to a regional economic analysis group.

The sobering forecast Thursday from the New England Economic Partnership projects only tepid improvement in 2010 beginning in the third quarter, though it says the region’s unemployment rate will remain below the national average.

“Recessions are not new to New England,” said Ross Gittell, the organization’s vice president and a University of New Hampshire professor. “In this recession, the region is expected to experience a less-pronounced employment decline than in the early 1990s, but significantly greater than in the early 2000s recession.”

The region had a 9.7 percent decline in employment in the early 1990s, and lost 3.5 percent of its employment in the early 2000s during the “dot-com bust.” The organization’s economists expect a total regional job loss during this recession of 450,000 from a base of just over 7 million (6.3 percent) before unemployment hits its low point of 9.2 percent in the second quarter of 2010.

That’s more than a full percentage point below the expected national peak of 10.3 percent, and economists say that’s due to the New England’s relatively slow population growth and high educational levels.

The group’s forecasters said the sectors most closely tied to the housing and financial markets are suffering most. Job losses in education and health services have been more muted, and health services are expected to recover jobs more quickly because they’re not tied to the business cycle, but considered a necessity.

The group said demand for health services will continue to grow, partly due to physical and emotional problems tied to job losses. That will put significant pressure on a health care system serving patients less able to pay for services.

The group said New Hampshire has the best regional jobs forecast — with peak unemployment projected at 7.1 percent — due to its relatively diverse economy and stronger economic fundamentals coming into the recession.

Rhode Island’s forecast is most grim, with unemployment reaching a high of 10.9 percent next year, according to the group. Maine is second worst with an unemployment peak of 9.7 percent, NEEP projects.

Massachusetts, Vermont and Connecticut will follow at 9.5, 9.0, and 8.9 percent, respectively, according to the group.

In his outlook for the national economy, Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi said the worst of the economic crisis appears over, citing more confident consumers, a banking system apparently on the mend, and a 30 percent increase in stock prices from the lows of early March.

But he said for the recovery to take hold this year, businesses must ease cost-cutting and job losses must soon slow. Zandi added that consumer confidence must also see clear and meaningful improvement.

“What distinguishes this downturn from the typical recession since World War II is the shattering of the collective psyche,” he said. “For this downturn to come to a definitive end, sentiment has to take on a much brighter hue.”