WASHINGTON — Ten years after the 2008-09 financial crisis, we’re swamped with studies and reminiscences. What are the legacies of the crisis? How long will they endure? Are they accurate — or just convenient scapegoats? Here are three takeaways. (1) We can no longer rule out another worldwide depression — something akin to the Great […]
national economy
Posted inOp-Eds, sj-web
Will inflation derail the U.S. economy?
WASHINGTON — Inflation is back. What do we do about it? For starters: Don’t ignore it. The latest consumer price index (CPI) — the government’s best-known inflation indicator — reported a 2.9 percent increase from July 2017. The last time the year-over-year gain was higher was in December 2011. Though hardly a cause for panic, […]
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Posted inOp-Eds, sj-web
Run the economy hot? We’ve done that
WASHINGTON — Can we run the economy “hot”? To those who think that President Trump’s economic policy is simply an extended program to make the rich richer, there is another, more subtle possibility. The focus on the rich, while understandable, simplifies and misrepresents Trump’s larger ambition. This is to create an economy that is operating […]
Posted inOp-Eds, sj-web
Economic forecasting includes much guesswork
WASHINGTON — You knew it all along: Economists can’t forecast the economy worth a hoot. And now we have a scholarly study that confirms it. Better yet, the corroboration comes from an impeccable source: the Federal Reserve. The study compared predictions of important economic indicators — unemployment, inflation, interest rates, gross domestic product — with […]
Posted inOp-Eds
Welfare takes rap for weak economy
WASHINGTON — Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, weighed in recently on one of the pressing issues facing the Trump administration — slow economic growth. Greenspan’s explanation is bound to be controversial. To preview: He blames the welfare state and overall uncertainty for the slowdown. Economic growth matters greatly. Faster growth raises […]
Posted inOp-Eds
Trump’s big plans may be unrealistic
WASHINGTON — Donald Trump, it seems, embraces the old dictum: Make no small plans. Already, he’s published an agenda for his first 100 days in office, recalling Franklin’s Roosevelt’s launching of the New Deal. Not surprisingly, near the top of Trump’s to-do list is a pledge to double economic growth from its recent desultory rate […]
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Troubles in emerging markets could bring recession
WASHINGTON — It’s hard not to wonder: Is the stock market telling us something? True, the market’s record in forecasting recessions is horrendous. Stocks often move according to whim or fad. But just because the market is wrong much of the time doesn’t mean it’s wrong all the time. Could last week’s turbulent trading be […]