WASHINGTON — Toward the end of 1942, Winston Churchill, in announcing a rare victory over the German army, uttered one of his more memorable phrases: “This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” The same might be said today of […]
Robert Samuelson
Economic forecasting includes much guesswork
WASHINGTON — You knew it all along: Economists can’t forecast the economy worth a hoot. And now we have a scholarly study that confirms it. Better yet, the corroboration comes from an impeccable source: the Federal Reserve. The study compared predictions of important economic indicators — unemployment, inflation, interest rates, gross domestic product — with […]
Accepting the 'administrative state'
WASHINGTON — Just what White House chief strategist Stephen Bannon meant when he recently suggested “deconstructing the administrative state” is unclear. To critics, he would gut the whole superstructure of social and environmental safeguards, starting with the Environmental Protection Agency (which, say news reports, may face a staff cut of one-fifth). But regardless of Bannon’s […]
Personal complacency hurts economy
“We have met the enemy and he is us.” — the comic-strip character Pogo by Walt Kelly, 1970 WASHINGTON — The same may be true of the economy. So says Tyler Cowen, author of the new book “The Complacent Class: The Self-Defeating Quest for the American Dream.” Although we’ve recovered from the Great Recession, there […]
Trying to manage in the age of disbelief
WASHINGTON — We live in an age of disbelief. Many of the ideas and institutions that have underpinned Americans’ thinking since the early years after World War II are besieged. There is an intellectual and political vacuum into which rush new figures (Donald Trump) and different ideas (America First). These new ideas and leaders may […]
Why Trump loves to hate the media
WASHINGTON — There was a brief moment after Donald Trump’s election when it was conceivable to ask whether he would strive to be a “uniter” or a “divider.” The moment passed quickly as Trump made it clear that he does not intend to abandon the style of politics — insulting and divisive — that got […]
Carbon tax provides workable start
WASHINGTON — By all means, let’s have a carbon tax. It’s the best way to deal with global climate change. It would require Republicans and Democrats to compromise — a good thing — and would provide revenues for a government that desperately needs more revenue. Fine. But let’s not pretend that a carbon tax is […]
Trans-Pacific Partnership may gain new life
WASHINGTON — The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is dead, but could it have an afterlife? Maybe. Among President Donald Trump’s first acts was an order withdrawing from the TPP. This fulfilled Trump’s campaign promise to torpedo the high-profile agreement between the United States and 11 other Pacific Rim countries, led by Japan and Mexico. As important, […]
Is corporate 'short-termism' a myth?
WASHINGTON — You’ve heard the criticism. Too many American corporate managers are addicted to “short-termism.” They postpone investments and other costs, sacrificing future performance for present profitability. Either they’re pressured by “activist investors” or want to inflate the value of their stock options. If true, it could help explain the economy’s lackluster performance. Now, a […]
President Trump’s trade war with Mexico would be a disaster
“Mexico braces for a trade war with Washington,” headline in the Financial Times, Jan. 31, 2017. Let’s hope not, because a trade war triggered by President Donald Trump would be an act of pure economic aggression, unjustified either by the United States’ economic and political interests or by Mexico’s behavior. It would be the economic […]