WASHINGTON — Trade wars, encouraged by President Trump, are inching closer. The White House has rejected the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), an agreement involving 12 Asian-Pacific countries, including the United States, Japan, Malaysia and Vietnam. It is threatening to do the same with the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) by slapping a 20 percent duty […]
Robert Samuelson
Washington becomes redistribution facility
“For too long, a small group in our nation’s capital has reaped the rewards of government while the people have borne the cost. Washington flourished, but the people did not share in its wealth.” — President Donald Trump, Jan. 20. Washington is not a swamp. Since at least the days of Jimmy Carter, presidential politicians […]
Trump speech: Patriotism on steroids
WASHINGTON — The question that swirls around Donald Trump’s inaugural address is whether his aggressively pronounced policy of America First will actually result in America Last — not literally last, but declining in power and prestige because the United States no longer views its role in the world as promoting economic and geopolitical stability for […]
Federal tax reform won’t come easy
WASHINGTON — Tax “reform,” starting with taxes on business, seems to be on everyone’s agenda, and it may be a place where the incoming Trump administration and its Democratic critics find common ground. But it’s still going to be a slog, and one reason is so-called “pass-through” businesses whose taxes are levied at personal income […]
Some thoughts on Obama’s presidency
WASHINGTON — It is far too early to render final judgment on the Obama presidency. All the chatter about his “legacy” overlooks two obvious realities. The significance of Obama will depend heavily on events that have not yet happened (for starters, the fate of the Iranian nuclear deal) and comparisons, for better or worse, with […]
What happened to the productivity dividend?
WASHINGTON — We are in the throes of another round of what the economist Joseph Schumpeter memorably called “creative destruction.” Two icons of American business — Macy’s and Sears — are struggling. Macy’s plans to close 100 stores to improve profitability, and Sears has sold its Craftsman tools line for roughly $900 million to raise […]
Protectionism can be bad for economy
WASHINGTON — Jawboning is back in style, courtesy of Donald J. Trump. Those with long memories will recall that “jawboning” is a term that became fashionable in the 1960s. It signified an effort by the government, usually the president, to persuade companies — through intimidation, bullying or shaming — to do what the president asked […]
Future U.S. economy a question mark
WASHINGTON — We’re all playing a guessing game. During the campaign, Donald Trump made many promises. But whether friend or foe, we don’t know what he will actually do. The result is a deluge of predictions from politicians, pundits, think tanks, lobbyists, economists and others. Here, for example, is the outlook of economists at Nomura […]
International order is in a state of flux
WASHINGTON — One insistent question that will shape 2017 is whether we’re witnessing the gradual decay of the post-World War II international order, dominated by the economic and military power of the United States. After the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991, it became fashionable to talk of the United States as the only true superpower. […]
The depression that didn’t happen
WASHINGTON — There is no mystery about Barack Obama’s greatest presidential achievement: He stopped the Great Recession from becoming the second Great Depression. True, he had plenty of help, including from his predecessor, George W. Bush, and from the top officials at the Treasury and Federal Reserve. But if Obama had made one wrong step, […]