WASHINGTON — When the North American Free Trade Agreement took effect in 1994, it was widely regarded — by friend and foe alike — as an ambitious experiment in economic engineering. To advocates, it promised the benefits of stronger economic growth for its three member countries: Canada, Mexico and the United States. To its adversaries, […]
Robert Samuelson
The Fed needs the freedom to protect the financial system
WASHINGTON — Who lost Lehman Brothers? Could it have been saved? As we approach the 10th anniversary of Lehman’s collapse (Sept. 15), these questions won’t go away. The Lehman bankruptcy is portrayed as the pivotal event that converted severe — but familiar — disruptions in financial markets into a full-blown panic. Nothing like it had […]
Will what happens in Turkey stay in Turkey?
WASHINGTON — The pertinent and unanswerable question about Turkey is whether the country’s present economic turmoil is an isolated event, mostly confined to Turkey itself, or whether it portends a larger economic convulsion that shakes markets around the world. Among economists and other experts, there’s no consensus. Some foresee contagion: Turkey’s problems will spread. Others […]
Will inflation derail the U.S. economy?
WASHINGTON — Inflation is back. What do we do about it? For starters: Don’t ignore it. The latest consumer price index (CPI) — the government’s best-known inflation indicator — reported a 2.9 percent increase from July 2017. The last time the year-over-year gain was higher was in December 2011. Though hardly a cause for panic, […]
President’s trade policies cannot work
WASHINGTON — When all is said and done, President Trump’s trade war may be fated to fail. There are many reasons why. One is that the target countries — prominently, China, Japan and Germany — won’t accede to his demands. This is already happening. Another threat is a backlash among U.S. firms, hurt by tariffs […]
The Age of Malware
WASHINGTON — Welcome to the Age of Malware. It promises to be a huge downer and, possibly, a great tragedy. For years, we have regarded personal computers, the internet, smartphones and various digital devices as evidence that America continues to dominate the central new technology of our time. Just last week, Apple attained a stock […]
Is upward mobility a thing of the past?
WASHINGTON — It’s an axiom among many Americans that each future generation will live better than its predecessor. New technologies, greater efficiencies and a can-do spirit will reward us with higher living standards. There might be periodic stumbles, but the long-term trajectory is up. And the people most guaranteed to enjoy this bountiful future are […]
Productivity boom may not be reality
WASHINGTON — Let’s travel back in time to 1995. Most Americans still remembered the calamitous inflation of the late 1970s (prices rose 13 percent in 1979). Many federal benefits, including Social Security, were (and are) tied to inflation. But was the inflation overstated, as many economists thought? If so, the economy might be doing better […]
The Fed is not strictly ‘independent’
“The Federal Reserve is meant to be independent of parochial political interests. But it’s got to operate — I think of this as a kind of band, sometimes wide, sometimes narrow — within the range of understanding of the public and the political system. You just can’t go do something that is just outside the […]
Understanding the ETF debate
WASHINGTON — Can we make sense of ETFs? If you’re in the investing class, you doubtlessly know that ETF stands for “exchange-traded fund.” Along with index mutual funds, they track a given stock or bond index. The best-known ETFs mirror the Standard and Poor’s 500 stock index. If the S&P 500 goes up, so do […]